What’s the Deal with Brexit?
Another day, another Brexit drama.
As the clock ticks down to the October 31st deadline (postponed from the original March due date) the United Kingdom’s government is once again in a flurry of excitement – and dread – over a possible separation deal.
Three weeks before the mandated date of departure, reports emerged that tunnel negotiations in Brussels between British and European negotiators had led to a possible Brexit agreement. Soon after, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that his new and improved Withdrawal Agreement Bill had been approved by the E.U. and could be in place in time for Hallowe’en, as he had always promised.
The deal secured between the E.U. and Johnson’s team does not differ significantly from the one proposed by his predecessor, Theresa May, except for the tricky topic of Northern Ireland. While the twenty years since the Good Friday Agreement have been peaceful, the people of Northern Ireland have not forgotten the decades of violence that preceded it. All Brexit negotiators have been keen to avoid a hard Irish border so as to uphold the spirit of the peace agreement, but this has been complicated. May’s deal dealt with the historically significant border by implementing a backstop, meaning Northern Ireland would stay in the European single market and the entire U.K. (including Northern Ireland) would remain part of the European Customs Union.
Johnson has done away with this. Under his new plan, all of the U.K. would leave the E.U. Customs Union. While this means that there will legally be a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, in practice, goods checks will take place at the ports, keeping the Irish border open while installing a barrier between Great Britain and the Emerald Isle. A yet to be defined system would distinguish between products from Great Britain destined to Northern Ireland (to be left untaxed) and that which could end up in the E.U. via the Republic of Ireland (which would have tariffs). To give the Irish people more control, the Northern Irish Assembly will be able to vote separately to change or maintain the rules that keep it apart from the rest of the U.K., but this will only be an option four years after the end of the transition period in 2020.
The question of this backstop-replacement led the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), who supported the Tories through previous attempts at Brexit bills, to denounce Prime Minister Johnson’s deal. The loss of DUP votes combined with a failure to pry support from unconvinced Labour MPs meant that Johnson’s deal was not immediately passed. Given the fast-tracked time frame Johnson foresaw, significant concern was raised about how the agreement would be put in place. A majority of MPs backed an amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement drafted by Conservative MP Sir Oliver Letwin, in which the Withdrawal Agreement could not be approved until Parliament passed legislation on dealing with its implementation.
Postponing support of the bill meant time was running out. To Johnson’s dismay, the Prime Minister is required by the Benn Act to request another extension to the Brexit deadline, despite repeated assurances throughout his leadership campaign that he would do no such thing. The letter was sent to Brussels, although Johnson left it unsigned and, in fact, sent a second contradictory letter outlining why an extension should not be granted after all.
The decision was delayed until October 22nd, when two crucial votes took place in Westminster. First, a success for Johnson: a majority of MPs backed his bill, the first ever approval of a Brexit deal by the House of Commons. However, the glow of success did not last long. Parliament immediately voted again, this time rejecting the three-day implementation time frame the Prime Minister proposed in order to leave the E.U. by October 31st.
Following this defeat, Johnson announced that he would pause the progress of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. Discussions between the Prime Minister and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on the fast-tracked time frame and a possible election ended without success for either party.
In Brussels, diplomats from the 27 other E.U. countries met to discuss the terms of Johnson’s requested extension, which the E.U. is expected to grant. Although French President Emmanuel Macron’s has called the E.U. to refuse an additional extension, his comments seem more bark than bite. A shorter or more flexible extension than the one requested is rumoured, but it seems increasingly likely that the due date will move to January 31st, 2020. In London, the Prime Minister maintains that the U.K. should leave the European Union by the end of October.
The looming threat of a general election before Christmas is becoming more certain. Faced with an unwanted Brexit extension, Johnson is now seeking a December 12th election date. Many politicians and activists have called for a second referendum on Brexit. As Sir Letwin was adding his amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, around one million pro-remain protesters stood outside Westminster, calling for another vote. No matter the outcome, there are more decisions ahead for the British people.