“Go West, Ukraine, Go West”: Ukrainians grow impatient as the nation goes to the second ballot
Petro Poroshenko’s ascendance to the presidency in 2014 marked a critical moment for Ukraine. In the wake of the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution, the nation’s largest and most violent popular revolt, Poroshenko’s election represented the population’s collective refusal to continue being subjugated by a toxic political system. However, with the second round ballot for the 2019 presidential election fast approaching on April 21st, the positivity that engulfed and united the population half a decade ago has dwindled. Today, almost 70 per centof Ukrainians believe that their country is on the wrong path. The implementation of economic and social reforms has been sluggishand the protracted conflict with Russiain the eastern regions of the country is grinding the economy to a halt. With Ukraine at the precipice of sustained economic development, social progress, and European integration, the winner of April’s election will be under immense pressure to kickstart immediate change.
Three candidates emerged as frontrunners prior to the first round of elections which took place on March 31, the incumbent, Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, and TV personality and comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Only two candidates have moved forward to the second ballot: Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Yulia Tymoshenko was perhaps the most polemic candidate in the first-round election. While Her campaign pivoted around a pro-EU, pro-NATO foreign policy, she has been vocal in opposing EU and IMF loansif their conditions require the implementation of policies that are not in the best interest of everyday Ukrainians.
President Poroshenko’s pro-Europe platform and staunch opposition to dependence on Russia appeals to the vast majority of Ukrainians, but the pace at which he has implemented essential reforms in the past has left the population frustrated. The government is still rife with corruption and oligarchs continue to be a mainstay of the political landscape. Wage hikes have stagnated, as have other indicators of standards of living like healthcare, employment, and the rule of law, which has left Ukrainians to question the priorities of their President.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has emerged as a dark horse contender for the presidency by leveraging his outsider persona. Despite his political inexperience, Zelenskiy has astutely capitalized on the public’s discontent with conventional politics, similar to other populist candidates throughout Europe. In doing so, he has positioned himself as the one true opposing force against the entrenched cronyism that has plagued the country since the Soviet era. His upbringing in eastern Ukraine and his preference to speak Russian has allowed him to appeal to communities which Petro intentionally ignores. However, voters are concerned that his inexperience may impair his performance and protract ongoing issues if he is elected.
While this is the first time that a Ukrainian presidential election will not feature an openly pro-Russia candidate, that will not dissuade the Kremlin from interfering. A recent report from a U.S. intelligence bureau revealed that Russia is set to spend $350 million on election meddling in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s aim is to exacerbate public discontent by delegitimizing the electoral process. This will allow Russia to attack public harmony and sap the Ukrainian population’s hopes of integration with Europe by casting doubt on pro-Europe policies. The Kremlin also holds many strategic advantages which will challenge the Ukrainian President no matter the substance of their foreign policy. For example, if Russia were to cede control of the separatist regions of Donbas and Luhansk and allow them to reintegrate into Ukraine, the Kremlin would be able to funnel pro-Russia politicians, backed by a pro-Russia population into the Ukrainian Parliament and thereby destabilize the balance of power in the country.
As the 2019 election draws near, Ukraine finds itself in a familiar situation. In 2004, the Orange Revolution galvanized a population around the belief that European integration was the way to modernize Ukraine. Yet, President Viktor Yushchenko failed to deliver his promises of reform. Russia seized on the gradual fragmentation of Ukrainian society by employing an extensive propaganda campaign and electoral interference techniques. As a result, the pro-Russia candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, rose to power. His presidency and eventual ousting deeply scarred the nation. To avoid repeating these events, the West, and particularly the EU, must continue to support and monitor the situation in Ukraine. In the short-term, this means offering resources and expertise to assist in shoring up electoral procedures and to keep the population informed about fake news sources and propaganda dissemination. In the longer-term, Western institutions must continue to fund vital reform interventions, and maintain pressure on Ukrainian governing bodies to ensure their initiatives are implemented at an acceptable rate. They must also restructure loan conditions so that they are more lenient and cognizant of the needs of the everyday Ukrainian.
Nevertheless, the majority of the burden will be shouldered by the President. Regardless of who wins, prioritizing anti-corruption reforms and focusing on strengthening education and social services will help to reunite the population, making it more impervious to Russian destabilizers. Patience and cooperation with EU entities will be necessary, but the President must first prioritize the rights and needs of the Ukrainian people. While the Ukrainian people may choose a comedian to be their next president, the upcoming election is no joke.