Changing the Playing Field: Russia tests new hypersonic weapons

On November 26, 2019, members of Russia’s Ministry of Defence demonstrated their new hypersonic missile system to American inspectors for the first time. As a show of Russian support for the New Start nuclear arms control treaty, which is set to expire in 2021, the inspection sent a clear message: Russia is well on its way to having the next generation of nuclear weapons.

Hypersonic weapons are defined as having the ability to reach speeds of at least Mach 5 (over 6125 kilometers per hour), however they remain highly maneuverable due to gliding capacities, giving them immense strategic value. Only three countries are currently known to be experimenting with this long sought-after weapon and delivery system: the U.S., Russia, and China. While analysts believe that both Russia and China are developing missiles that can carry either nuclear or conventional warheads, the U.S. program is only currently slated to carry the latter.

Two types of hypersonic weapons are currently under development. The first strain of research focuses on glide vehicles that are launched by rocket-like boosters before returning into the Earth’s atmosphere and gliding unpowered at high altitude. The second type of hypersonic weapons under development are weapons with air-breathing engines (meaning they must stay within the oxygen-filled atmosphere) that retain power until they reach their target destination.

Due to their gliding capacities, the trajectory of a hypersonic missile is not a classic arc, meaning that the weapons can be easily maneuvered after returning to the atmosphere. This means that unlike Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), the target of a hypersonic weapon can be hidden until well into the flight – ideal for a country on the offensive. Hypersonics will be harder to track and their speed will make them difficult to block using current missile defence systems. Russia states that these qualities make developing hypersonic missiles extremely attractive, as they will render American defence programs useless.

Russia’s history with hypersonics stretches back decades, although it has increased its dedication to the program since the American withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. President Putin first unveiled the country’s hypersonic program, named Avangard, in 2018, stating that the first regiment of strategic missile troops would be deployed by the end of 2019. There have been at least 14 tests since the fall of the Soviet Union, but the recent demonstrations are the first to be witnessed by external evaluators.

Despite the attractiveness of hypersonic missile programs, creating weapons with the ability to travel significantly faster than the speed of sound has been blocked by many technological challenges in the past. However, as technology improves, the barriers to making accurate computer models and guidance systems are being chipped away.

Russia’s advancements in its hypersonic program is a huge leap for the country’s military and scientific reputation. President Putin has compared the creation of the missile to the launch of the first Soviet satellite in 1957, citing the two as equally technologically significant. The advancement of Russia’s hypersonic program also carries political significance. By letting inspectors know the status of their hypersonics program, Russia is showing their support for the New Start treaty at a time when arms control (particularly involving the U.S.) lacks stability. New Start aims to limit and reduce nuclear weapons held by the U.S. and Russia (the two largest stockpiles in the world) and implement monitoring and verification processes. While New Start does not cover vehicles that have a ballistic trajectory for less than half the flight (which includes hypersonic weapons), Russia’s initiative in inviting the American inspections highlight’s the country’s desire to continue along the path to disarmament, despite potential reticence on the side of the U.S.

Meanwhile, China and the U.S. are believed to remain in the testing phase of their programs.