Troubles in the UK. But institutions in action.

Three Prime Ministers in the last three months, a currency in freefall, rampant inflation, reputable independent organizations ignored, top public servants fired.

Whilst very few may have predicted that this would be the UK’s current state of affairs, there are some important lessons that policymakers can learn from this episode with regards to politics, governance, and institutions, that are applicable to both the UK and Canada.

How did the UK get here? A brief canter through recent history provides important context.

The Conservative (‘Tory’) Party has been in government since 2010, initially under David Cameron’s leadership, then in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and winning an outright majority in 2015. Following the Brexit referendum in 2016, Cameron resigned, with the party electing Theresa May as prime minister (PM) to deliver Brexit. The fervent debate and dispute around the precise terms of a Brexit deal however, forced May to resign in 2019. After a leadership vote, Boris Johnson was elected in 2019 to finally ‘get Brexit done’. He called a general election and secured a strong majority, empowering his Government to finalize Brexit legislation. Johnson ultimately lost the trust of the UK public and his party, as he and the Government failed to live up to the standards and restrictions conferred on the wider population during the height of the Covid pandemic.

Liz Truss entered Downing Street as the new PM in September 2022. She quickly filled her Cabinet with political allies, making it clear that the PM’s office was setting the policy agenda, and discounting advice from key institutions such as the Treasury. Markets were not so easily dismissed however, and with the Pound in freefall and the Bank of England forced into emergency financial interventions, Truss lost all support and was forced to resign. Rishi Sunak, the new PM, will seek to steer the UK through the current icy economic waters.

So what can policymakers learn from this experience? Before reaching to lessons learned, it is important to provide some points of context. First, the wounds of the British public are still raw from high inflation, economic instability, and government hypocrisy during Covid. Government policy has significant impacts on the lives of ordinary people, so the ‘lessons learned’ from this crisis are not merely academic. Second, policymakers should temper their (perhaps instinctive) critique of government with the recognition that there are many hard-working politicians with sincere ambitions to serve the country, and it is difficult to fully appreciate the pressures and challenges of the political arena.

Within this context, there are three important observations for parliamentary institutions, particularly those who operate under a Responsible Government model such as the UK and Canada:

(1) The recent experience of the UK highlights potential weaknesses of majority Governments, and by implication, a potential advantage of minority governments. The common thread across the Johnson and Truss Governments has been overconfidence – on occasions bordering on arrogance – towards MPs outside the Cabinet, expert institutions (including the public service), and the British public. Although strong leadership personalities were a contributing factor to government overconfidence, a significant driver has been the Conservative Government’s strong majority win at the 2019 general election, cemented by the general confidence of having held office since 2010. In contrast, where minority Governments exist, such as in Canada currently, or in the UK during 2010-2015, minority parties  challenge ruling parties,  reducing the risk of material political and/or economic error.

(2) The good news is that there are effective checks and balances within the UK party system. Johnson and Truss were forced to resign once they lost the support of cabinet members and backbench MPs – reflecting concerns of the UK voting public and government itself. There is a relatively high bar to reach this point, and typically, Cabinet can maintain a tight grip on the policy-making reins. However, if government policy or conduct becomes materially misaligned with the sentiment of the public or government itself, it can create a tipping point, and the momentum of party opposition can overthrow government leadership relatively quickly. This demonstrates that Cabinet power is not unlimited. The rhetoric of “stability” espoused by the recently elected PM Rishi Sunak is evidence of a self-correcting humility mechanism which kicks in when powerful and confident governments are punished for going too far.

(3) The institutions that govern leadership changes are rightly being debated. Both Truss and Sunak were elected without winning a general election – the former voted in by Conservative party members (constituting 0.3% of the voting public), and the latter ultimately elected unopposed (based on the support of a majority of Conservative MPs). On one hand, this is the natural consequence of Responsible Government: Voters select their MP, and a government is formed based on the confidence of the House. On the other hand, holding multiple leadership contests within a short period of time will not leave the UK public feeling that they are being democratically represented.

In summary, despite the UK’s recent troubles, the democratic checks and balances within existing parliamentary institutions have held firm to date. For the sake of the UK public, let’s hope that continues.